Each year at the BBC Sport website they attempt to predict, in Oliver Brett's words: "players on the cusp of making an impact on the international cricket scene."
Now deciding these at the end of December or start of January is a little arbitrary. It would probably be better to wait until April and see what up and coming youngsters were making waves during pre-season or had put on a yard of pace over the winter, but if it is a chance to expand the BBC's cricket coverage beyond mere news to include some more substantial content and informed comment then we at FNK are all for it.
The criteria is a little restricting, like Wisden's cricketers of the year you can only appear once and they try to name one each from the touring sides, three from the county scene hoping to break into the England team that summer and a token female for political correctness.
Brett boasts of the Beeb having had some success over the years, including last year Dale Steyn. Quite how the Beeb pulled that one out of the bag, I don't know. His success in tests in England last summer (eight wickets at 36.25) obviously caught out a lot of people by surprise at where this bloke - who on New Year's Day 2008 when this brave prediction was made was ranked a lowly 6th in the world in the bowling rankings having taken 76 wickets at 25.25 - had suddenly emerged from.
The other 2008 choices seem nearly as inspired. Joe Denly followed up his 1003 runs at 41.79 in 2007 with a disappointing 905 at 30.16; Boyd Rankin managed just 12 wickets all season whilst Chris Jordan was an eccentric choice as a young England hopeful considering he'd said he wanted to represent the West Indies. No Kiwi was proffered as none stood out (Ross Taylor? Tim Southee?) instead Tim Ambrose was predicted. Ambrose did go onto play both test and one-day cricket for England that summer, but by the end of it had lost the gloves in both formats.
It is easy to criticise with hindsight and the author, Jamie Lillywhite had acknowledged that he was an awful tipster (which rather begs the question why did anyone ask him to write the piece?) so it is probably unfair to look too closely at the choices. It is worth asking again why Dale Steyn is still highlighted as a good tip when Oliver Brett reviews the 2008 selections. As we've already established it can't be on the basis of his English summer and it can't be on the basis of his sudden impact on world cricket because he'd already taken 44 wickets at an amazing 17.47 in 2007.
Anyhow, let's look instead at Oliver Brett's selections.
First up is Mitchell Johnson.
On the cusp of making an impact in international cricket? He's just taken 63 wickets at 29.01 in the last calendar year and is rated the number FIVE bowler in the world. What is that if that isn't already having made an impact in international cricket? It's like picking Dale Steyn all over again. I tell you what, I reckon that Sri Lankan spinner is one to keep an eye out for, no not Mendis, that Murali.
I know it is one of their rivals, I know there is a danger of having to listen to Mark Nicholas on commentary, but will someone please give the Beeb a subscription to Sky Sports so they can watch some world cricket.
It's not even as if Australia are lacking newcomers. How about New South Wales' youngster, Philip Hughes? With Hayden's test career surely coming to an end, why not tip Hughes. Sure Jaques (another one who has played fewer tests than Mitchell Johnson) may return and partner Katich at the top of the order, but why not highlight a young up and coming cricketer who many won't have heard of yet? Then there are players like Peter Siddle, Shaun Marsh, Ben Hilfenhaus, Doug Bollinger (stop laughing at the back) who are all names many won't have heard much about. If BBC readers don't know about Mitchell Johnson, I'd suggest the BBC is failing in its coverage of world cricket.
That's more like it. Marshall has a test average of just 22.09, a first class average of 26.97 and an ODI average of 17.85 (from 24 games!). That is brave punditry, none of this let's pick the 5th ranked bowler in the world malarkey. Brett could have gone for Andre Fletcher who made a good impression at the Stanford 20:20, but instead he's plumped for Xavier Marshall on the basis of his "ability to strike the ball cleanly" which "may make him one to watch at the ICC World Twenty20 in June." Fair play to you sir on this one.
Next up is Mark Davies.
Hmm, wasn't the criteria players on the cusp of the international scene? If Davies gets capped by England this summer I'll eat his test cap. Widely considered to lack the pace necessary to make an impact on the higher stage, Davies has not just the "very good" first class bowling record Brett attributes, but an excellent one. Whether that record would look quite so good away from the Riverside and playing on some flat test pitches is another matter. I suppose he could get a test call - no-one predicted Pattison last year - in the case of injuries to become the Headingley specialist (although these days that is more Trent Bridge) but it strikes me as a teletext selection. As Brett alludes to, Davies will invariably be injured anyway.
Is this really a prediction of who will get an international call-up, or is it a safe, boring prediction so you can turn round and say "well he might not have been selected, but he had a good year"?
Robbie Joseph is a more interesting call. For both Davies and Joseph to get the call in an Ashes summer, I can only imagine Brett is expecting a mass IPL defection. It is not inconceivable that Joseph breaks into the international team, particularly if the Ashes are quickly relinquished. Interestingly Brett talks only of his one-day form, so he may see him as only an one-day selection. The chances of him being picked and making an impact on the international scene are fairly minimal though, as bowlers in particular seem to rarely make an immediate impact on the international scene.
The final selection (other than the token female) is Will Smith.
Ignoring Brett's mistake as to how Smith left Notts (they wanted to keep him) I'd be astonished if Will Smith got an England call in 2009 ahead of the likes of Bopara, Shah, Key and Denly. Yet again this appears to be tipping for who to have a good county season last year. Picking a player who was player of the year at the champions to have a good 2009 is hardly a brave choice. It is however the first time I've heard Will Smith's name being mentioned as an England prospect, so I'll give some credit here, even though I suspect it might yet be the only time he does get mentioned in England talk.
If you were to insist on picking three players who might have a breakthrough year for England, the likes of Bopara, Shah (at least in tests) and maybe slightly longer shots Saj Mahmood or Tim Bresnan at their second bites of international cricket could be considered to be on the verge of breakthroughs. All four would however be unexciting choices considering that they've been around the England set up for some time. Of far more interest would be to make the focus instead on young English players in county cricket on the verge of making a name for themselves. Joseph and Smith would have been an excellent shouts in 2008, as would Johnson on the international stage. But who will be their counterparts in 2009? Surely this piece should be concentrating on asking whether the likes of Steven Finn and Danny Evans at Middlesex, Jaik Miklebrugh and Maurice Chambers at Essex, Josh Cobb at Leicestershire, Adam Lyth at Yorkshire can break through and trying to work out who is going to be the Robbie Joseph, Graham Napier, Luke Wright, James Harris or David Malan of 2009. It needs to be looking at who can be this year's Mitchell Johnson, not at who Mitchell Johnson is.
Ultimately this isn't so much a preview of who will breakthrough in 2009, as an unispiring review of who broke through in 2008. Come on Beeb, you can do better than this.
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